One of the Villages of Citrus Hills · one-acre-plus wooded homesites east of Jill Street, under the Citrus Hills POA
Prepared October 1, 2026 · Resale single-family homes
BALANCED MARKET
5.5 months of homes for sale — balanced now, but the overpriced listings still give ground.
$400,000 · $180/sq ft
What a typical existing home costs today
94%
Of original ask is what sellers got — the typical resale sold $24,000 under its first price
−11.7%
Resale value per sq ft off its 2025 peak — a genuine correction in your favor
The Bottom Line
Fox Run Estates has tightened from a buyer’s market to balanced, with about 5.5 months of inventory. Recent resale buyers still paid a median of 94% of original ask, and the overpriced listings are leverage — over the past year, homes that started too high sat a median of 166 days and still sold about $27,900 under their first price. On value per square foot, resale value is about 11.7% below its 2025 peak (still up about 17% since 2021). We’ll judge every home on price per square foot before we write.
Prepared October 1, 2026 Single-family homes 136 listings analyzed · 2021–2026
BALANCED MARKET
With about 5.5 months of homes for sale, Fox Run Estates is balanced — 3 homes are under contract, and 4 of the 6 for sale have already cut their price. Recent resale buyers paid a median of 94% of original ask, and value per square foot is about 11.7% below its 2025 peak. There is still room to negotiate.
$400,000.00
Median resale price last 12 months
$179.93
Resale price paid per living sq ft (12 mo.)
65 days
Median time on market before going under contract
94%
Of original asking price — what sellers actually got
$24,000.00
Median drop from first asking price to sold price
6 / 3 / 9
For sale now / under contract / resales sold in 12 months
What’s Really Happening Here
Fox Run Estates is one of the Villages of Citrus Hills, governed by the Citrus Hills POA — one-acre-plus wooded homesites on well and septic, with natural privacy and a quiet, country feel. The typical existing home sold near $400,000.00 over the past year, and with about 5.5 months of supply the market is balanced: 6 homes are for sale against 3 under contract, and 4 of the 6 have already cut price.
New construction is minimal here (about 10% of sales), so this is essentially an all-resale market — what matters is how far values have moved and where the overpriced listings sit.
What This Means for Your Offer
Asking price is a starting point, not a verdict. Recent resale buyers paid a median of 94% of the original ask, and the typical resale sold about $24,000.00 under its first number.
The overpriced listings are your leverage. Over the past year, homes that started too high and cut their price sat a median of 166 days and still sold about $27,900.00 under their first ask. A home that’s been sitting is a negotiation waiting to happen.
Judge value in price per square foot. Where a home lands against the $180 resale median tells us what it’s really worth before we write.
Fox Run Estates · The Numbers Behind the Story · Resale Homes
Resale Value Per Square Foot, by the Year — What the Market Actually Did
Median resale value per square foot by calendar year (2026 is year-to-date through September). We chart per-foot value, not median price — because median price swings on which sizes sell, while price-per-foot shows the real trend, and where your negotiating room sits.
Resale Values, by the Year
Year
Sold
Median Price
$/SqFt
DOM
At/over ask
2021
24
297,000.00
$153.52
12
58%
2022
24
387,950.00
$185.97
7
50%
2023
20
445,000.00
$190.81
27
15%
2024
19
425,000.00
$193.26
60
5%
2025
10
370,000.00
$203.83
18
30%
2026 YTD
9
400,000.00
$179.93
65
11%
Resale homes only; full calendar years with 2026 as year-to-date through September.
The Peak Test: on resale value per square foot, Fox Run Estates is about 11.7% below its 2025 peak (still up about 17% since 2021). A modest cool-down you buy into, not a market you chase upward.
The Number Nobody Shows You
1 in 5.5
resale listings in the current cycle left the market unsold (2 of 11 — expired or withdrawn)
194 days
how long those failed listings sat before the seller gave up — usually overpriced
Two ways that helps you. First, a seller whose home has sat for months is a negotiation waiting to happen. Second, those expired and withdrawn homes are inventory the portals no longer show — the owners still want to sell, and we can approach them directly for you.
Long-run perspective: resale value per square foot is up about 17% since 2021. You’re buying into a proven community, and a balanced market still leaves room to negotiate on homes priced above the data.